Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs McDavid 51.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Jenner 52.5%
Defensive zone
Jenner 50.3%
Neutral zone
Jenner 54.0%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Jenner
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Jenner
McDavid
Last 10: Jenner 6-4 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Jenner
McDavid
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Jenner
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
51.5% (889)
+2.7%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
63.9% (36)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
51.2% (86)
-1.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Jenner shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Jenner
McDavid
Home
56.7% (693)
50.7% (513)
Away
52.7% (693)
53.2% (498)
By Period
Jenner
McDavid
P1
57.1%
52.3%
P2
54.1%
51.6%
P3
53.0%
51.7%
OT
61.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 09:30 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |