Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Jenner wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Mercer 45.3% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 71.1%
Defensive zone
Mercer 62.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 71.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Jenner
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Jenner
Mercer
Last 6: Jenner 2-4 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
2
Jenner
Mercer
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Mercer
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Jenner
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
43.2% (148)
+11.0%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
40.0% (10)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
28.6% (7)
+21.1%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Jenner is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Jenner shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Home / Away
Jenner
Mercer
Home
56.7% (693)
39.0% (82)
Away
52.7% (693)
45.8% (83)
By Period
Jenner
Mercer
P1
57.1%
45.5%
P2
54.1%
44.0%
P3
53.0%
36.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
36.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 08:35 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 08:21 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |