Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 27 meetings). Jenner wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 39-29 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Jenner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
29
(68 meetings)
39
29
Jenner
O'Reilly
Last 10: Jenner 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
13
Jenner
O'Reilly
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
17
10
Jenner
O'Reilly
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
11
6
Jenner
O'Reilly
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,182)
56.2% (15,249)
-1.7%
Power Play
55.8% (1,147)
58.8% (3,443)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (997)
51.4% (2,806)
-3.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jenner is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,172).
Jenner shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,858).
Home / Away
Jenner
O'Reilly
Home
54.5% (4,051)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
53.5% (4,275)
54.4% (10,769)
By Period
Jenner
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
55.6%
P2
53.6%
57.0%
P3
54.4%
55.0%
OT
54.5%
62.1%
Final 5 min
52.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
58.0%▲
49.5%
54.0%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:49 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 02:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |