Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.3% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Jenner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Jenner
O'Reilly
Last 10: Jenner 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
2
Jenner
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
1
Jenner
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (851)
56.6% (1,064)
-2.5%
Power Play
54.0% (202)
60.4% (260)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
50.3% (145)
54.0% (261)
-3.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Jenner shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Jenner
O'Reilly
Home
53.2% (609)
54.9% (801)
Away
54.0% (589)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Jenner
O'Reilly
P1
49.7%
58.0%
P2
53.6%
56.7%
P3
56.5%
55.4%
OT
65.2%
64.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |