Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.3% vs Hertl 52.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Jenner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Jenner
Hertl
Last 6: Jenner 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Jenner
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Jenner
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (851)
51.6% (1,084)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.0% (202)
61.0% (246)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.3% (145)
44.1% (136)
+6.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jenner is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Jenner shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Jenner
Hertl
Home
53.2% (609)
55.2% (696)
Away
54.0% (589)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Jenner
Hertl
P1
49.7%
55.4%
P2
53.6%
54.8%
P3
56.5%
48.9%
OT
65.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 02:33 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |