Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 50.8% vs Hertl 55.4% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.7%
Defensive zone
Jenner 68.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.8%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Jenner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Jenner
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Jenner
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
1
0
Jenner
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (163)
54.1% (717)
-3.8%
Power Play
52.0% (25)
61.9% (210)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
58.1% (31)
+0.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jenner is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (89).
Jenner shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Jenner
Hertl
Home
45.7% (81)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.8% (124)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Jenner
Hertl
P1
46.6%
57.1%
P2
58.3%
54.0%
P3
50.0%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |