Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.2%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 20 meetings). Jenner wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 33-21 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.8%
Defensive zone
Jenner 68.0%
Neutral zone
Jenner 58.8%
Result
Boone Jenner favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Jenner
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
33
(54 meetings)
21
33
Jenner
Hertl
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
14
Jenner
Hertl
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
14
Jenner
Hertl
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jenner
8
5
Jenner
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,190)
53.8% (8,268)
+0.7%
Power Play
55.8% (1,147)
59.3% (1,975)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (998)
46.3% (806)
+2.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jenner is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,180).
Jenner shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Jenner
Hertl
Home
54.5% (4,051)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
53.4% (4,284)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Jenner
Hertl
P1
53.7%
53.6%
P2
53.5%
54.1%
P3
54.4%
55.3%
OT
54.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:58 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |