Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Coyle 52.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 93.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 91.7%
Neutral zone
Coyle 55.4%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Tkachuk
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tkachuk
Coyle
Last 5: Tkachuk 2-3 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Coyle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Tkachuk
Coyle
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
1
Tkachuk
Coyle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
52.7% (849)
-5.2%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
66.7% (39)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
48.1% (131)
-35.6%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +35.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Coyle is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Coyle
Home
49.9% (389)
53.3% (512)
Away
46.8% (376)
51.9% (507)
By Period
Tkachuk
Coyle
P1
44.4%
53.8%
P2
51.8%
47.8%
P3
47.8%
56.7%
OT
57.1%
38.5%
Final 5 min
44.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |