Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Coyle 51.5% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 81.9%
Defensive zone
Coyle 93.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 50.5%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Tkachuk
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tkachuk
Coyle
Last 8: Tkachuk 3-5 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Coyle
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
4
Tkachuk
Coyle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
1
Tkachuk
Coyle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
53.0% (1,046)
-5.1%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
57.6% (144)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
43.6% (287)
-43.6%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +43.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Coyle is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,181).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Coyle
Home
56.0% (175)
54.5% (719)
Away
49.8% (205)
48.8% (758)
By Period
Tkachuk
Coyle
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
51.9%
50.0%
P3
47.3%
53.3%
OT
77.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 11:51 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:16 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 11:31 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:59 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |