Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 39.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.1% vs Evans 50.1% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 83.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 80.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 51.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Tkachuk
Evans
Last 9: Tkachuk 4-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Evans
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
5
Tkachuk
Evans
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (99)
52.2% (320)
-3.7%
Power Play
46.7% (150)
100.0% (2)
-53.3%
On power play, Evans has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
50.7% (136)
54.3% (223)
Away
43.4% (113)
45.1% (182)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
45.9%
53.9%
P2
54.4%
44.9%
P3
42.2%
52.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
47.4%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 17:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2021 | 2 | 04:06 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 08:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |