Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Evans 52.6% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 93.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 53.3%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Tkachuk
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
54.4% (824)
-3.4%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
66.7% (9)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
48.1% (289)
+1.9%
On power play, Evans has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
50.0% (140)
55.1% (541)
Away
52.2% (207)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
54.3%
51.8%
P2
50.0%
53.3%
P3
49.5%
53.8%
OT
33.3%
38.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
51.3%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |