Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 25 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Evans 52.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 24-14 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 50.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 60.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
24
(38 meetings)
14
24
Tkachuk
Evans
Last 10: Tkachuk 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
10
0
Tkachuk
Evans
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
22
Tkachuk
Evans
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Tkachuk
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
53.8% (3,695)
-4.8%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
60.0% (70)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
47.1% (1,222)
-2.1%
On power play, Evans has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
50.7% (1,428)
53.4% (2,593)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
51.0% (2,394)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
49.4%
54.0%
P2
51.3%
50.9%
P3
49.3%
52.0%
OT
57.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:18 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 12:52 | Defensive | Jake Evans |