Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Evans 51.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 95.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 88.0%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 61.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tkachuk
Evans
Last 5: Tkachuk 1-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Tkachuk
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Tkachuk
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
54.5% (483)
-7.0%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
58.3% (12)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
43.9% (155)
-31.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
49.9% (389)
49.4% (336)
Away
46.8% (376)
54.8% (314)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
44.4%
55.8%
P2
51.8%
51.7%
P3
47.8%
48.2%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Jake Evans |