Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.2%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Evans 52.0% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 93.5%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 53.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Tkachuk
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tkachuk
Evans
Last 8: Tkachuk 4-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Evans
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
4
Tkachuk
Evans
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
54.4% (807)
-6.5%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
55.0% (20)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
46.1% (310)
-46.1%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +46.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Evans
Home
56.0% (175)
53.7% (581)
Away
49.8% (205)
50.5% (556)
By Period
Tkachuk
Evans
P1
55.0%
54.6%
P2
51.9%
50.0%
P3
47.3%
52.3%
OT
77.8%
46.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:18 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |