Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Backlund 49.7% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 95.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.9%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 66.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Tkachuk
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Tkachuk
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
50.1% (891)
+6.7%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
53.1% (64)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
47.8% (278)
+52.2%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Backlund
Home
50.4% (121)
48.1% (580)
Away
67.3% (113)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Tkachuk
Backlund
P1
57.1%
45.1%
P2
60.0%
54.7%
P3
58.3%
49.0%
OT
66.7%
46.2%
Final 5 min
55.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |