Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.3%). Look for Suzuki on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 20 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Suzuki 49.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Suzuki leads 27-21 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.4%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 59.6%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 51.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Tkachuk
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
27
(48 meetings)
21
27
Tkachuk
Suzuki
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
14
1
Tkachuk
Suzuki
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
2
18
Tkachuk
Suzuki
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
5
8
Tkachuk
Suzuki
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
49.4% (6,327)
-0.4%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
50.7% (1,338)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
43.6% (456)
+1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Suzuki is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,913).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Suzuki
Home
50.7% (1,428)
51.0% (3,997)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
47.6% (4,124)
By Period
Tkachuk
Suzuki
P1
49.4%
48.8%
P2
51.3%
49.1%
P3
49.3%
50.2%
OT
57.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 14:17 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:05 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:07 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 2 | 18:46 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |