Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Tkachuk
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tkachuk
Sturm
Last 6: Tkachuk 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Tkachuk
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
54.6% (271)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
54.4% (90)
+45.6%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +45.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Sturm
Home
50.4% (121)
53.0% (168)
Away
67.3% (113)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Tkachuk
Sturm
P1
57.1%
58.2%
P2
60.0%
53.2%
P3
58.3%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |