Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Sturm 59.0% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 75.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 96.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 65.4%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Tkachuk
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tkachuk
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Tkachuk
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
60.6% (708)
-12.7%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
61.1% (18)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
56.4% (101)
-56.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Sturm
Home
56.0% (175)
61.6% (451)
Away
49.8% (205)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Tkachuk
Sturm
P1
55.0%
55.9%
P2
51.9%
58.9%
P3
47.3%
64.6%
OT
77.8%
70.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |