Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Sturm 56.1% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.7%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Tkachuk
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Tkachuk
Sturm
Last 10: Tkachuk 6-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
6
0
Tkachuk
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
5
Tkachuk
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
57.1% (2,719)
-8.1%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
61.3% (62)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
51.0% (498)
-6.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Sturm
Home
50.7% (1,428)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Tkachuk
Sturm
P1
49.4%
56.5%
P2
51.3%
54.9%
P3
49.3%
57.4%
OT
57.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
46.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |