Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 51.0%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 90.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 53.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Last 9: Tkachuk 5-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
1
Tkachuk
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Tkachuk
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
49.3% (789)
-3.9%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
56.9% (181)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
54.1% (98)
+45.9%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +45.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tkachuk is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (198).
Tkachuk shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Home
51.1% (233)
52.0% (512)
Away
49.0% (202)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Tkachuk
Stamkos
P1
42.9%
42.1%
P2
52.2%
56.4%
P3
53.7%
53.7%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
43.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 17:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 12:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 03:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 09:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |