Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 77.3%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 61.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Last 6: Tkachuk 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Tkachuk
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
55.3% (628)
-7.8%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
55.1% (216)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
40.2% (87)
-27.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Home
49.9% (389)
55.5% (499)
Away
46.8% (376)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Tkachuk
Stamkos
P1
44.4%
50.7%
P2
51.8%
53.8%
P3
47.8%
55.9%
OT
57.1%
87.5%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 09:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |