Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 74.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 64.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Last 5: Tkachuk 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Tkachuk
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Tkachuk
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
55.9% (499)
-8.0%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
56.3% (126)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
58.3% (12)
-58.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Stamkos
Home
56.0% (175)
55.3% (349)
Away
49.8% (205)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Tkachuk
Stamkos
P1
55.0%
57.0%
P2
51.9%
59.2%
P3
47.3%
51.5%
OT
77.8%
55.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 12:09 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 18:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 07:58 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |