Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.8%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 51.0% vs Nelson 51.6% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 78.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.4%
Neutral zone
Point 58.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Point
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Point
Nelson
Last 7: Point 2-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Point
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
2
Point
Nelson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (639)
50.7% (902)
-0.8%
Power Play
58.2% (122)
59.8% (169)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
48.3% (116)
-4.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Point is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Point shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
Point
Nelson
Home
49.4% (387)
53.6% (603)
Away
52.8% (390)
49.9% (585)
By Period
Point
Nelson
P1
49.1%
55.4%
P2
49.0%
47.2%
P3
54.4%
52.6%
OT
80.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
51.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 1 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 12:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 02:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 00:44 | Defensive | Brayden Point |