Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.7% vs Nelson 51.9% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 59.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.1%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Point
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Point
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Point
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Point
1
0
Point
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (736)
51.3% (1,002)
-3.5%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
58.7% (126)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (7)
51.9% (81)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Point has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Point is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (706).
Point shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Point
Nelson
Home
49.7% (471)
52.5% (590)
Away
47.2% (415)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Point
Nelson
P1
46.6%
50.5%
P2
51.7%
54.4%
P3
46.5%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
47.4%
Final 5 min
47.0%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |