Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.7% vs 45.2%). Point wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 46.2% vs Nelson 45.8% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 62.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.5%
Neutral zone
Point 54.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Point
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Point
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Point
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Point
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (582)
46.1% (735)
-0.2%
Power Play
45.6% (57)
34.5% (29)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
30.4% (23)
-10.4%
On power play, Point has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Point is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Point shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Point
Nelson
Home
45.8% (286)
48.7% (419)
Away
45.5% (358)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Point
Nelson
P1
45.9%
44.6%
P2
48.8%
47.3%
P3
40.6%
43.0%
OT
62.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
40.7%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
45.7%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |