Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.8% vs 48.3%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Nelson 48.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 21-20 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 61.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Point
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
21
(41 meetings)
20
21
Point
Nelson
Last 10: Point 4-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
7
3
Point
Nelson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
12
Point
Nelson
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Point
8
6
Point
Nelson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,183)
47.9% (9,695)
+0.4%
Power Play
53.9% (1,043)
54.5% (1,132)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
43.8% (783)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,402).
Point shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Home / Away
Point
Nelson
Home
49.1% (3,733)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Point
Nelson
P1
46.8%
48.7%
P2
51.4%
48.5%
P3
48.0%
47.7%
OT
52.0%
45.6%
Final 5 min
49.6%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 18:03 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 1 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 12:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 05:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |