Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.8%). Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Point wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 50.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 92.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.3%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Point
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Point
Dowd
Last 9: Point 4-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
2
0
Point
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Point
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
4
Point
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (711)
55.2% (625)
-5.3%
Power Play
56.2% (105)
57.1% (7)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
38.2% (220)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Point has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Point is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (250).
Point shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Point
Dowd
Home
53.3% (394)
53.7% (445)
Away
48.4% (428)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Point
Dowd
P1
49.8%
48.8%
P2
53.0%
49.3%
P3
49.6%
54.0%
OT
44.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
50.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 09:40 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |