Scouting Report
Brayden Point holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 48.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Point 65.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 79.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Point
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Point
Cates
Last 10: Point 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
5
4
Point
Cates
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Point
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
5
6
Point
Cates
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (6,183)
44.1% (2,742)
+4.2%
Power Play
53.9% (1,043)
43.0% (242)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (247)
34.9% (373)
+3.6%
On power play, Point has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Point is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,402).
Point shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Point
Cates
Home
49.1% (3,733)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
48.5% (3,740)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Point
Cates
P1
46.8%
44.5%
P2
51.4%
43.5%
P3
48.0%
41.2%
OT
52.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
49.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
48.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |