Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Point wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 50.7% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 51.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 91.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 68.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
Point
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Point
O'Reilly
Last 8: Point 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
1
0
Point
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Point
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Point
3
1
Point
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (711)
56.1% (690)
-6.2%
Power Play
56.2% (105)
64.6% (96)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
45.9% (109)
+4.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Point is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (572).
Point shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Point
O'Reilly
Home
53.3% (394)
58.3% (408)
Away
48.4% (428)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Point
O'Reilly
P1
49.8%
57.7%
P2
53.0%
54.8%
P3
49.6%
55.2%
OT
44.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
50.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 13:59 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 19:45 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:50 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Brayden Point |