Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Point wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.1% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 82.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
Point
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Point
O'Reilly
Last 5: Point 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Point
3
0
Point
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Point
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (435)
55.4% (826)
-9.2%
Power Play
49.5% (105)
57.9% (221)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
50.4% (129)
-30.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Point is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Point shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Point
O'Reilly
Home
46.9% (243)
55.8% (579)
Away
46.4% (302)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Point
O'Reilly
P1
46.2%
57.7%
P2
45.9%
54.8%
P3
48.9%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.6%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
46.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:18 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brayden Point |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |