Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.6% vs Carrick 49.5% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 51.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 70.3%
Neutral zone
Howden 58.3%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Howden
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Howden
Carrick
Last 6: Howden 3-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Howden
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Howden
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (282)
48.9% (352)
-0.3%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
81.3% (16)
-81.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
42.2% (45)
-4.7%
On power play, Carrick has a +81.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Howden is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Howden shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Howden
Carrick
Home
52.6% (173)
46.9% (192)
Away
41.5% (118)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Howden
Carrick
P1
51.6%
48.1%
P2
37.1%
50.0%
P3
55.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
48.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 13:50 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Brett Howden |