Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.8% vs Nelson 50.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 52.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Lowry
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Lowry
Nelson
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
4
Lowry
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Lowry
Nelson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (660)
50.6% (871)
+5.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
58.1% (160)
+25.2%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
44.0% (193)
-2.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Lowry is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Lowry shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (792).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nelson
Home
54.5% (402)
52.3% (621)
Away
54.1% (351)
48.8% (603)
By Period
Lowry
Nelson
P1
52.4%
48.3%
P2
56.3%
53.4%
P3
54.7%
50.4%
OT
44.4%
41.2%
Final 5 min
58.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
54.0%▼
56.0%
54.3%
Nelson
62.0%▲
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |