Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Point wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 47.1% vs Nelson 50.6% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Point 80.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.9%
Neutral zone
Point 65.5%
Result
Brayden Point favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Point
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Point
Nelson
Last 9: Point 3-6 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Point
3
0
Point
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
4
Point
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Point
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (435)
50.7% (879)
-4.5%
Power Play
49.5% (105)
58.6% (162)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
43.4% (198)
-23.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Point is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Point shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Point
Nelson
Home
46.9% (243)
52.3% (621)
Away
46.4% (302)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Point
Nelson
P1
46.2%
48.4%
P2
45.9%
53.5%
P3
48.9%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
46.6%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
54.0%▲
48.5%
46.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Brayden Point |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Brayden Point |