Brock Nelson vs Casey Mittelstadt
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Mittelstadt 46.4% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
0
1
Nelson
Mittelstadt
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
45.3% (569)
+1.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
49.6% (135)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
40.6% (32)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Mittelstadt is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Home
48.9% (521)
45.1% (366)
Away
45.5% (516)
46.8% (370)
By Period
Nelson
Mittelstadt
P1
45.9%
41.1%
P2
48.0%
51.1%
P3
48.0%
45.9%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 01:27 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |