Brock Nelson vs Casey Mittelstadt
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 51.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Mittelstadt 50.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 63.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.3%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
0
2
Nelson
Mittelstadt
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
50.4% (139)
+0.3%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
54.8% (31)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
100.0% (1)
-56.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Mittelstadt is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (103).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Home
52.3% (621)
59.3% (91)
Away
48.9% (618)
42.5% (80)
By Period
Nelson
Mittelstadt
P1
48.4%
48.8%
P2
53.5%
49.1%
P3
50.3%
56.7%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |