Brock Nelson vs Casey Mittelstadt
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Mittelstadt shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Mittelstadt 47.3% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 57.2%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 52.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.3%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Mittelstadt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
0
3
Nelson
Mittelstadt
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
46.4% (935)
-0.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
50.3% (173)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
50.0% (16)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Mittelstadt is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Home
48.7% (419)
47.7% (583)
Away
41.3% (368)
46.4% (541)
By Period
Nelson
Mittelstadt
P1
44.6%
50.0%
P2
47.3%
46.2%
P3
43.0%
45.5%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Mittelstadt
42.0%▼
50.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |