Brock Nelson vs Casey Mittelstadt
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Mittelstadt 44.7% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 85.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Last 8: Nelson 6-2 Mittelstadt
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Mittelstadt
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Mittelstadt
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Mittelstadt
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
44.7% (886)
+6.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
40.2% (112)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
40.0% (5)
+11.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Mittelstadt is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mittelstadt
Home
52.5% (590)
46.0% (491)
Away
51.7% (619)
42.4% (512)
By Period
Nelson
Mittelstadt
P1
50.5%
44.0%
P2
54.4%
46.4%
P3
51.4%
41.9%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Mittelstadt
48.0%▼
53.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 07:24 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |