Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Blackwell 49.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.0%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 68.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.8%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Nelson
Blackwell
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Blackwell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
0
1
Nelson
Blackwell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
0
1
Nelson
Blackwell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Blackwell
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
49.6% (127)
+0.3%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
76.9% (13)
-24.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
34.5% (29)
-5.9%
On power play, Blackwell has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blackwell shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Blackwell is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (128).
Home / Away
Nelson
Blackwell
Home
49.8% (458)
53.9% (76)
Away
49.0% (506)
45.2% (93)
By Period
Nelson
Blackwell
P1
50.1%
43.4%
P2
45.4%
50.0%
P3
52.7%
53.8%
Final 5 min
47.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:00 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |