Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Blackwell 44.7% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 96.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 80.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 76.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Nelson
Blackwell
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Nelson
Blackwell
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Blackwell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
0
Nelson
Blackwell
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
0
2
Nelson
Blackwell
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Blackwell
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
48.3% (172)
+2.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
0.0% (2)
+58.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
31.7% (82)
+11.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +58.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blackwell shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Blackwell is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Nelson
Blackwell
Home
52.3% (621)
43.8% (144)
Away
48.9% (618)
41.1% (112)
By Period
Nelson
Blackwell
P1
48.4%
45.3%
P2
53.5%
36.1%
P3
50.3%
46.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |