Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.7%). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Blackwell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Blackwell 48.2% (-0.5%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Nelson
Blackwell
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Blackwell
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
50.0% (52)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
33.3% (18)
-2.9%
On even strength, Blackwell has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Blackwell shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Blackwell is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (65).
Home / Away
Nelson
Blackwell
Home
48.7% (419)
41.9% (31)
Away
41.3% (368)
48.7% (39)
By Period
Nelson
Blackwell
P1
44.6%
47.1%
P2
47.3%
50.0%
P3
43.0%
41.4%
Final 5 min
39.4%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
45.7%