Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs McMichael 44.5% (+6.5%)
Offensive zone
McMichael 50.5%
Defensive zone
McMichael 57.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.4%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Nelson
McMichael
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McMichael
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
43.1% (339)
+6.8%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
50.0% (4)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
0.0% (2)
+28.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McMichael shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. McMichael is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Nelson
McMichael
Home
49.8% (458)
42.7% (178)
Away
49.0% (506)
43.1% (167)
By Period
Nelson
McMichael
P1
50.1%
40.7%
P2
45.4%
50.0%
P3
52.7%
36.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%