Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — McMichael shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs McMichael 43.2% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 82.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Nelson
McMichael
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Nelson
McMichael
Last 5: Nelson 5-0 McMichael
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
McMichael
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McMichael
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
43.4% (761)
+2.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
40.7% (59)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
30.8% (52)
-0.4%
On power play, McMichael has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McMichael shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Home / Away
Nelson
McMichael
Home
48.7% (419)
42.1% (444)
Away
41.3% (368)
42.8% (428)
By Period
Nelson
McMichael
P1
44.6%
42.5%
P2
47.3%
41.9%
P3
43.0%
42.5%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 09:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |