Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs McMichael 43.8% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 79.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.6%
81.6%
18.4%
Nelson
McMichael
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
McMichael
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 McMichael
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
McMichael
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McMichael
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
42.4% (399)
+8.3%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
49.1% (55)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
40.6% (96)
+2.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McMichael shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. McMichael is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (367).
Home / Away
Nelson
McMichael
Home
52.3% (621)
43.0% (298)
Away
48.9% (618)
42.5% (252)
By Period
Nelson
McMichael
P1
48.4%
46.5%
P2
53.5%
41.1%
P3
50.3%
41.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:58 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |