Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Mercer 37.5% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 94.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 94.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 93.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 94.0%
94.0%
6.0%
Nelson
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Nelson
Mercer
Last 8: Nelson 7-1 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Mercer
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Mercer
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Mercer
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
35.4% (548)
+14.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
42.9% (35)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
0.0% (7)
+28.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mercer
Home
49.8% (458)
39.9% (283)
Away
49.0% (506)
31.3% (307)
By Period
Nelson
Mercer
P1
50.1%
37.7%
P2
45.4%
32.1%
P3
52.7%
37.7%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 18:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 16:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |