Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.9%). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Mercer 46.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 58.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Neutral zone
Mercer 55.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Nelson
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
2
Nelson
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
43.6% (241)
+2.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
50.0% (14)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
70.0% (10)
-39.6%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +39.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mercer
Home
48.7% (419)
41.7% (120)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Nelson
Mercer
P1
44.6%
44.6%
P2
47.3%
45.4%
P3
43.0%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |