Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Mercer 41.8% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 52.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Nelson
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Mercer
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
38.8% (263)
+11.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
35.3% (17)
+23.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
50.0% (10)
-6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mercer
Home
52.3% (621)
34.7% (144)
Away
48.9% (618)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Nelson
Mercer
P1
48.4%
32.7%
P2
53.5%
42.7%
P3
50.3%
42.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:55 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |