Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Mercer 45.3% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 51.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Nelson
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Nelson
Mercer
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
43.2% (148)
+3.7%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
40.0% (10)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
28.6% (7)
-3.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mercer
Home
48.9% (521)
39.0% (82)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.8% (83)
By Period
Nelson
Mercer
P1
45.9%
45.5%
P2
48.0%
44.0%
P3
48.0%
36.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
36.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |