Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Mercer 43.3% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 74.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Nelson
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
41.0% (212)
+10.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
35.7% (14)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
36.4% (11)
+15.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mercer
Home
52.5% (590)
45.2% (126)
Away
51.7% (619)
35.1% (111)
By Period
Nelson
Mercer
P1
50.5%
34.5%
P2
54.4%
43.4%
P3
51.4%
45.8%
OT
47.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |