Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Larkin 54.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 83.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 72.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 80.4%
19.6%
80.4%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Nelson
Larkin
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
52.9% (1,228)
-5.5%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
63.1% (214)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
55.2% (145)
-12.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
51.0% (641)
55.8% (805)
Away
44.1% (605)
53.2% (782)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
48.2%
55.2%
P2
48.1%
53.3%
P3
46.9%
55.1%
OT
42.9%
51.7%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 15:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 3 | 11:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |