Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Larkin 54.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Larkin
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Larkin
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Nelson
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.6% (1,117)
-1.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
60.7% (305)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
55.9% (177)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
52.5% (590)
54.7% (783)
Away
51.7% (619)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
50.5%
55.9%
P2
54.4%
56.1%
P3
51.4%
51.1%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |